diff --git a/planning/active/citation_audit.md b/planning/active/citation_audit.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f14152c --- /dev/null +++ b/planning/active/citation_audit.md @@ -0,0 +1,250 @@ +# Citation Audit — peace-fwcp.Rmd wire-up (#67) + +Same format as #65/kootenay audit. One row per `[@key]` insertion +in `peace-fwcp.Rmd`. Per-AOI nuances vs #65 noted in each row. + +--- + +## 1. Hansen 2012 — 1951–1980 baseline (Trends, L176) + +**Vignette excerpt (current):** "Anomalies are computed against a +pre-warming reference period — 1951–1980, the three decades before +climate change accelerated. Saying a year is '+1.5 °C' means it was +1.5 °C warmer than the average year between 1951 and 1980." + +**Source quote (#63 archive, `cumulative_impact_loaded_dice`):** +> "3-sigma extreme outliers, which covered much less than 1% of +> Earth's surface during the 1951–1980 base period, now typically +> cover about 10% of the land area." — Hansen et al. 2012, PNAS + +**Rag store / topic:** `data/rag/interpretation_framing.duckdb` / +`cumulative_impact_loaded_dice` + +**Paraphrase as written:** "1951–1980, the three decades before +climate change accelerated. This is the same base period +@hansen_etal2012Perceptionclimate use to detect the emergence of +3-sigma summertime-temperature outliers globally." + +**Why warranted:** identical justification as #65 row 1. All +anomaly plots reference the 1951–1980 baseline directly. + +--- + +## 2. Arguez & Vose 2011 — WMO climate normal (Trends, L186) + +**Vignette excerpt (current):** "1981–present (45 years) — starts +at the beginning of the World Meteorological Organization's most +recent 30-year 'climate normal' (1981–2010)." + +**Source quote (#63 archive, `baseline_window_methodology`):** +> "We propose that any potential alternative climate normal is the +> result of changing one or more of these five attributes... +> [WMO normals are] more useful as a comparison metric than as a +> predictor of expected future conditions in a changing climate." +> — Arguez & Vose 2011, BAMS + +**Rag store / topic:** `data/rag/interpretation_framing.duckdb` / +`baseline_window_methodology` + +**Paraphrase as written:** "World Meteorological Organization's most +recent 30-year 'climate normal' (1981–2010) +[@arguez_vose2011DefinitionStandard]." + +**Why warranted:** identical to #65 row 2. + +--- + +## 3. Karl 1993 — DTR asymmetry (Daytime/Overnight, L238) + +**Vignette excerpt (current):** "Overnight minimums warming faster +than daytime maximums — the 'day-night asymmetry' — is one of the +textbook fingerprints of greenhouse warming (Karl et al. 1993)." + +**Source quote (#58 archive, `dtr_asymmetry`):** +> "the rise of the minimum temperature has occurred at a rate three +> times that of the maximum temperature during the period 1951-90 +> (0.84°C versus 0.28°C)... The asymmetry is detectable in all +> seasons and in most of the regions studied." — Karl et al. 1993, +> BAMS + +**Rag store / topic:** `data/rag/temp_methodology.duckdb` / +`dtr_asymmetry` + +**Paraphrase as written:** convert prose-style "(Karl et al. 1993)" +→ "[@karl_etal1993NewPerspective]" + +**Why warranted:** vignette already names Karl 1993 in prose. **DTR +asymmetry is STRONGER in Peace than in Kootenay** — the regional +DTR narrowed by 0.4 °C cumulative (Peace L246-248) vs 0.2 °C in +Kootenay. Direct visible match in the dtr plot. + +--- + +## 4. Pepin 2015 + Rangwala-Miller 2012 — high-elevation/latitude amplification (Interpretation, L859-864) + +**Vignette excerpt (current):** "the northern, higher-elevation +ecoregions (Omineca Mountains, Boreal Mountains and Plateaus) +warmed about 0.2 °C more than the southern Fraser Basin, consistent +with the well-documented pattern of high-latitude and +high-elevation amplification — but it is small relative to the +regional signal." + +**Source quotes (#58 archive, `elevation_dependent_warming`):** +> "growing evidence that the rate of warming is amplified with +> elevation, such that high-mountain environments experience more +> rapid changes in temperature than environments at lower +> elevations." — Pepin et al. 2015 + +> "it is still uncertain whether mountainous regions generally are +> warming at a different rate than the rest of the global land +> surface, or whether elevation-based sensitivities in warming +> rates are prevalent within mountains." — Rangwala & Miller 2012 + +**Rag store / topic:** `data/rag/temp_methodology.duckdb` / +`elevation_dependent_warming` + +**Paraphrase as written:** "the northern, higher-elevation +ecoregions (Omineca Mountains, Boreal Mountains and Plateaus) +warmed about 0.2 °C more than the southern Fraser Basin, consistent +with the elevation-dependent warming signal documented at +mid-latitude mountain sites +[@pepin_etal2015Elevationdependentwarming], though the regional +evidence base remains heterogeneous and not every mountain region +shows the same pattern [@rangwala_miller2012Climatechange]." + +**Why warranted:** Interpretation paragraph explicitly invokes +"high-latitude and high-elevation amplification." Per-ecoregion +trend table (Per-Ecoregion Variation section) shows the +0.2 °C-more-warming signal in BMP/Omineca vs Fraser Basin. + +**Note:** placed at L853-864 (Interpretation) NOT at Spatial +Pattern L554-560. Peace's Spatial Pattern dominant gradient is +**east-west, windward-of-Rockies** — not elevation per se. +Pepin/Rangwala doesn't cleanly cover windward-slope amplification, +so we don't decorate the Spatial Pattern section. + +--- + +## 5. Ficklin & Novick 2017 — VPD continental drying (Interpretation, L887-897) + +**Vignette excerpt (current):** "Vapour pressure deficit — the gap +between how much water the air could hold and how much it actually +does — rose significantly in every ecoregion (p < 0.005 across all +five). Warmer air holds more water before saturating, and that +pulls moisture out of soil and vegetation through evaporation and +transpiration. Soil moisture is essentially flat in every +ecoregion — even where precipitation increased — because the +warmer atmosphere is drinking the extra water back." + +**Source quote (#61 archive, `vpd_drying_continental`):** +> "spring, summer, and fall seasons exhibited the largest areal +> extent of significant increases in VPD... Significant increases +> in VPD have been caused by air temperature increases and +> relative humidity changes." — Ficklin & Novick 2017, JGR + +**Rag store / topic:** `data/rag/precip_drying_methodology.duckdb` +/ `vpd_drying_continental` + +**Paraphrase as written:** "Vapour pressure deficit — the gap +between how much water the air could hold and how much it actually +does — rose significantly in every ecoregion (p < 0.005 across all +five), mirroring the continental-scale drying that +@ficklin_novick2017Historicprojected documented for the United +States as a whole, driven by air-temperature increases and +relative-humidity changes." + +**Why warranted:** **stronger Peace case than Kootenay.** Peace +shows VPD up significantly *despite* precipitation rising 3-4% +in 2 ecoregions — a pure evaporative-demand signal. Kootenay's +VPD-drying claim was supported by precipitation also declining; +here the air-temperature/RH-driven VPD increase OVERRIDES the +modest precip gain. This is the cleanest "atmosphere is drying +because it's getting warmer" attribution in either vignette. +Visible in cmp_combined table (VPD with positive Δ + p < 0.001 +trend). + +--- + +## 6. Mantua 2010 + Eaton & Scheller 1996 — climate-fish bridge (Interpretation, L925-938) + +**Vignette excerpt (current):** "For the cold-water resident +salmonids the FWCP Peace supports — bull trout, Arctic grayling, +mountain whitefish, rainbow trout, kokanee — these signals +compound. Stream temperatures are likely rising in step with +warmer ambient air temperatures..." + +**Source quotes (#58 archive, `climate_stream_temp_bridge`):** +> "Simulations predict rising water temperatures will thermally +> stress salmon throughout Washington's watersheds... combined +> effects of warming summertime stream temperatures and altered +> streamflows will likely reduce the reproductive success for many +> Washington salmon populations." — Mantua et al. 2010, Climatic +> Change + +> "cold-water and cool-water species are predicted to lose +> substantially more thermal habitat than warm-water species." +> — Eaton & Scheller 1996, L&O + +**Rag store / topic:** `data/rag/temp_methodology.duckdb` / +`climate_stream_temp_bridge` + +**Paraphrase as written:** "Stream temperatures are likely rising +in step with warmer ambient air temperatures, with the combined +effects of warming summer stream temperatures and altered low +flows likely reducing thermally-suitable habitat for cold-water +species [@mantua_etal2010Climatechange; +@eaton_scheller1996Effectsclimate]..." + +**Why warranted:** identical justification to #65 row 6. Load- +bearing for FWCP fish-passage planner audience. Peace's salmonid +list (bull trout, Arctic grayling, mountain whitefish, rainbow +trout, kokanee) overlaps heavily with the cold-water cohort +Eaton & Scheller 1996 covers. + +--- + +## 7. Kang 2016 — Fraser freshet (Interpretation, L937-938) + +**Vignette excerpt (current):** "the neighbouring Fraser Basin +documents the same kind of freshet advance (Kang et al. 2016) at +comparable magnitude." + +**Source quote (#54 archive snow rag):** +> "10-day advances of the onset of the spring freshets for the +> Fraser River at Hope... declines persist during the recession +> to lower flows in autumn just when the salmon are migrating up +> the Fraser River." — Kang et al. 2016, Sci Rep + +**Rag store / topic:** `data/rag/snow_methodology.duckdb` / +`bc_specific` + +**Paraphrase as written:** convert "(Kang et al. 2016)" → +"[@kang_etal2016ImpactsRapidly]" + +**Why warranted:** identical to #65 row 7. Format consistency +with the rest of the vignette. **Note:** Kang's Fraser AOI is +geographically adjacent to Peace headwaters (Fraser drains +southward from the same Continental Divide that the Peace +crosses), making this comparison especially direct. + +--- + +## Out-of-audit observations + +The 10 existing Snowpack-section `[@key]` markers from #54 are +intact and well-grounded — not re-audited here. + +## Independent review agent — checklist + +The Phase 3 review agent should verify, for each row above: +1. Source quote actually exists in cited paper (not hallucinated) +2. Paraphrase faithful to source — no overreach +3. "Why warranted" matches an actually-visible feature in plots/tables +4. No decoration; cite is load-bearing + +Watch especially for: +- Pepin/Rangwala fit at L853-864 (interpretation paragraph, not + spatial pattern) — verify the per-ecoregion trend table actually + shows the 0.2 °C-more-warming signal in northern ecoregions +- Ficklin & Novick paraphrase faithfulness re Peace's "VPD up + *despite* precip up" framing diff --git a/planning/active/findings.md b/planning/active/findings.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..60474c8 --- /dev/null +++ b/planning/active/findings.md @@ -0,0 +1,51 @@ +# Findings — Wire up peace-fwcp.Rmd citations (#67) + +## Issue context + +Same playbook as #65 (kootenay-lake wire-up), now applied to +peace-fwcp.Rmd. 7 insertions total, 8 unique keys + 1 reuse, +sparingly per the philosophy memory. + +## Pre-work read of `peace-fwcp.Rmd` + +940-line vignette. Section structure mirrors kootenay-lake exactly +(both share the regional-vignette template per +`project_regional_vignette_template.md` memory). 10 existing +`[@key]` cites all in Snowpack + per-ecoregion-snow + +interp-snow paragraphs from #54. + +## Per-AOI differences vs Kootenay + +The Peace's climate departure shows **opposite precipitation +signal** to Kootenay: +- Peace: annual precip up 3-4% regionally (significant in 2 of 5 + ecoregions: BMP, NRM); soil moisture flat +- Kootenay: annual precip down ~7% (significant); soil moisture + flat + +This makes the **VPD-driven drying claim more compelling for +Peace** — soil moisture stays flat *despite* more precipitation +arriving, because warmer atmosphere drinks it back. Ficklin & +Novick 2017 is more load-bearing here than in Kootenay. + +DTR asymmetry is **stronger in Peace** (0.4 °C cumulative +narrowing) than Kootenay (0.2 °C) — the textbook signal that Karl +1993 documents shows up more clearly here. Cite warranted. + +EDW cite (Pepin/Rangwala) lands at L853-864 in Peace's +**Interpretation** section (which explicitly invokes "high-latitude +and high-elevation amplification"), NOT at the Spatial Pattern +section like in Kootenay. Peace's spatial pattern is dominated by +an E-W gradient (windward-of-Rockies), not pure elevation — +Pepin/Rangwala don't cleanly cover windward-slope amplification. + +## Source corpus (same as #65) + +Pulling from the 4 archived findings.md files (snow #53, temp #58, +precip+drying #61, framing #63). Audit log +(`planning/active/citation_audit.md`) tracks each insertion. + +## Proposed insertion candidates + +7 high-value insertions identified in Phase 0 read (table in +task_plan.md). Will refine via agent review in Phase 3. diff --git a/planning/active/progress.md b/planning/active/progress.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..59924f8 --- /dev/null +++ b/planning/active/progress.md @@ -0,0 +1,37 @@ +# Progress — Wire up peace-fwcp.Rmd citations (#67) + +## Session 2026-05-05 + +- Closed #65 (kootenay vignette wire-up): PR #66 merged, v0.2.5 + released, planning files archived +- Filed #67 (peace-fwcp vignette citation wire-up — same playbook + as #65, now for the second regional vignette) +- Created branch `67-peace-vignette-wireup` off main +- Phase 0 read of `peace-fwcp.Rmd` complete: + - 940-line vignette, same template structure as kootenay-lake + - 10 existing cites all in Snowpack section (from #54) + - Non-snow sections zero cites — same wire-up target + - Identified 7 candidate insertions (task_plan candidate table) + - Per-AOI nuance: VPD-drying cite stronger here (precip up, + soil moisture flat → pure VPD effect); DTR asymmetry stronger + here (0.4 °C narrowing); EDW cite belongs at Interpretation + not Spatial Pattern (Peace's dominant warming gradient is E-W + windward-of-Rockies, not pure elevation) +- Scaffolded PWF baseline mirroring #65 structure +- Phase 1 done: planning/active/citation_audit.md built with 7 + rows; per-AOI nuances vs #65 captured (VPD-drying stronger + here; EDW belongs at Interpretation not Spatial Pattern; DTR + asymmetry stronger here) +- Phase 2 done: 7 insertions made into peace-fwcp.Rmd (+42/-30 + lines) +- Phase 3 done: Explore subagent verified all 7 rows. **All + passed.** No edits or removals required. Agent specifically + validated the per-AOI nuances (Ficklin's mechanism applies to + Peace's "VPD up despite precip up" framing; EDW cite at + Interpretation paragraph appropriate; Mantua's WA scope used + as regional reference, not BC-specific claim) +- Phase 4 done: references.bib regen via rbbt::bbt_update_bib + produced no diff (peace-fwcp + kootenay-lake use the same 18 + citation keys; bib already includes all). Local render of + peace-fwcp.Rmd produced 4.0 MB HTML — all cites resolve +- Next: Phase 5 — push branch, open PR diff --git a/planning/active/task_plan.md b/planning/active/task_plan.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..bee8b9b --- /dev/null +++ b/planning/active/task_plan.md @@ -0,0 +1,83 @@ +# Task: Wire up peace-fwcp.Rmd citations from 3-split lit reviews (#67) + +## Problem + +`peace-fwcp.Rmd` non-snow interp paragraphs make claims with zero +peer-reviewed citations. The 3-split lit reviews + #65 kootenay +wire-up established the playbook; this is the second consumer. + +## Pre-work findings (Phase 0) + +940-line vignette. Same section structure as kootenay-lake. +Existing 10 cites all in Snowpack + per-eco-snow + interp-snow +(inherited from #54). Non-snow sections have zero cites. + +**Identified candidate insertions (7 total):** + +| # | Vignette location | Proposed `[@key]` | Why warranted | +|---|---|---|---| +| 1 | L176 Trends ("pre-warming reference 1951–1980") | `@hansen_etal2012Perceptionclimate` | Hansen 12 uses identical base period | +| 2 | L186 Trends (WMO climate normal) | `@arguez_vose2011DefinitionStandard` | Defines WMO 5-attribute normal — grounds cd's alternative | +| 3 | L238 Daytime/Overnight ("Karl et al. 1993" prose) | `@karl_etal1993NewPerspective` | Convert prose ref; **DTR asymmetry stronger in Peace** (0.4 °C narrowing) than Kootenay (0.2 °C) — directly visible in dtr plot | +| 4 | L859-864 Interpretation ("high-latitude and high-elevation amplification") | `@pepin_etal2015Elevationdependentwarming`, `@rangwala_miller2012Climatechange` | Vignette explicitly invokes EDW + heterogeneity | +| 5 | L887-897 Interpretation/drying (VPD up despite precip rise in places) | `@ficklin_novick2017Historicprojected` | **Stronger Peace case than Kootenay** — soil moisture flat *despite* precip rising 3-4% in 2 ecoregions; pure VPD-driven evaporative-demand effect | +| 6 | L925-938 Interpretation/salmonids | `@mantua_etal2010Climatechange`, `@eaton_scheller1996Effectsclimate` | Climate-stream-temp-fish bridge | +| 7 | L937-938 Interpretation/Fraser ("Kang et al. 2016" prose) | `@kang_etal2016ImpactsRapidly` | Convert prose ref; Kang's Fraser AOI directly comparable to Peace headwaters | + +**Skipped from initial plan:** Spatial Pattern (L554-560) EDW cite. +Peace's dominant warming gradient is E-W (windward-of-Rockies), +not elevation-based. Pepin/Rangwala doesn't cleanly support +windward-slope amplification. Don't decorate. + +## Phase 1 — Build audit log +- [ ] Create `planning/active/citation_audit.md` mirroring #65's + structure (1 row per cite with vignette excerpt, source quote, + rag store + topic, paraphrase as written, why warranted) + +## Phase 2 — Insert citations +- [ ] Edit `peace-fwcp.Rmd` for 7 insertions +- [ ] Smooth prose where citation reads awkwardly + +## Phase 3 — Independent review agent +- [ ] Spawn Explore subagent with audit log + 4 ragnar quotes + archives + source PDFs; verify each paraphrase faithful; + flag drift / overreach / decoration / hallucinated quotes +- [ ] Address feedback + +## Phase 4 — Render check +- [ ] Regenerate `vignettes/references.bib` via `rbbt::bbt_update_bib( + path_rmd = "vignettes/peace-fwcp.Rmd", ...)` — but careful: + this regenerates for peace-fwcp KEYS only and would drop + kootenay-only keys. **Use combined regeneration:** detect + keys from both Rmds, union the sets, then write bib. +- [ ] Render vignette locally to confirm cites resolve + +## Phase 5 — PR + release +- [ ] `/code-check` clean +- [ ] Atomic commits — Phase 1 audit, Phase 2 vignette edits, + Phase 3 review fixes, Phase 4 bib regen +- [ ] PR with `Fixes #67`. SRED tag in PR body +- [ ] After merge: `/planning-archive` → bump v0.2.5 → v0.2.6 + +## Validation +- [ ] 7 (±agent feedback) `[@key]` markers added +- [ ] Audit log filled out with 5 fields per row +- [ ] Review agent signed off +- [ ] Vignette renders cleanly with all cites resolving +- [ ] kootenay-lake.Rmd cite resolution NOT broken by bib regen +- [ ] Snowpack-section citations untouched + +## Out of scope +- **`kootenay-lake.Rmd`** — done in #65/v0.2.5 +- **New lit reviews** +- **Vignette section restructuring** +- **FWCP Peace cross-references in `kootenay-lake.Rmd`** — + separate small follow-up + +## Notes +- Branch: `67-peace-vignette-wireup` +- BBT 9.x active; auto-restart pattern not needed (no new Zotero + adds — all keys already in `NewGraphEnvironment/climate`) +- `vignettes/references.bib` currently has 18 entries from #65; + after this issue should have all keys cited in EITHER vignette + (union) diff --git a/vignettes/peace-fwcp.Rmd b/vignettes/peace-fwcp.Rmd index befef5c..bf7fdee 100644 --- a/vignettes/peace-fwcp.Rmd +++ b/vignettes/peace-fwcp.Rmd @@ -174,7 +174,9 @@ knitr::kable(head(ts, 10), ## Trends Anomalies are computed against a pre-warming reference period — 1951–1980, -the three decades before climate change accelerated. Saying a year is +the three decades before climate change accelerated. This is the same base +period @hansen_etal2012Perceptionclimate use to detect the emergence of +3-sigma summertime-temperature outliers globally. Saying a year is "+1.5 °C" means it was 1.5 °C warmer than the average year between 1951 and 1980. @@ -185,10 +187,10 @@ from two different start years: magnitude of warming since the pre-warming reference. - **1981–present (45 years)** — starts at the beginning of the World Meteorological Organization's most recent 30-year "climate normal" - (1981–2010). This is the reference period used in most published - climate products, so it makes results easy to compare against - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports and government - climate summaries. + (1981–2010) [@arguez_vose2011DefinitionStandard]. This is the + reference period used in most published climate products, so it + makes results easy to compare against Intergovernmental Panel on + Climate Change reports and government climate summaries. Comparing the two slopes is informative. If the 45-year slope is steeper than the 75-year slope, warming has accelerated — recent decades are @@ -235,9 +237,9 @@ The cd package ships daytime maximum (tmax) and overnight minimum (tmin) temperatures alongside the daily mean. They carry distinct information. Overnight minimums warming faster than daytime maximums — the "day-night asymmetry" — is one of the textbook fingerprints of -greenhouse warming (Karl et al. 1993). Whether a watershed or region -shows that signal depends on local geography (valley inversions, snow -cover, slope-aspect mix). +greenhouse warming [@karl_etal1993NewPerspective]. Whether a +watershed or region shows that signal depends on local geography +(valley inversions, snow cover, slope-aspect mix). For the FWCP Peace Region, **overnight minimums are warming faster than daytime maximums** — the textbook day-night asymmetry. Daytime @@ -859,9 +861,12 @@ mean temperatures all tell the same story. There is no thermal hot spot. The whole region has moved together. A subtle gradient does emerge — the northern, higher-elevation ecoregions (Omineca Mountains, Boreal Mountains and Plateaus) warmed about 0.2 °C more than the -southern Fraser Basin, consistent with the well-documented pattern of -high-latitude and high-elevation amplification — but it is small -relative to the regional signal. +southern Fraser Basin, consistent with the elevation-dependent +warming signal documented at mid-latitude mountain sites +[@pepin_etal2015Elevationdependentwarming], though the regional +evidence base remains heterogeneous and not every mountain region +shows the same pattern [@rangwala_miller2012Climatechange]. The +gradient is small relative to the regional signal. **Precipitation is increasing significantly only in the two northernmost ecoregions.** Across the FWCP Peace as a whole, the @@ -887,14 +892,17 @@ distinguishable from natural variability. **The atmosphere is drying despite, in places, more precipitation.** Vapour pressure deficit — the gap between how much water the air could hold and how much it actually does — rose significantly in -every ecoregion (p < 0.005 across all five). Warmer air holds more -water before saturating, and that pulls moisture out of soil and -vegetation through evaporation and transpiration. Soil moisture is -essentially flat in every ecoregion — even where precipitation -increased — because the warmer atmosphere is drinking the extra -water back. This is the headline ecological finding for the region: -water inputs may be rising in places, but soil and vegetation are -not seeing more available moisture. +every ecoregion (p < 0.005 across all five), mirroring the +continental-scale drying that @ficklin_novick2017Historicprojected +documented for the United States as a whole, driven by combined +air-temperature increases and relative-humidity changes. Warmer +air holds more water before saturating, and that pulls moisture +out of soil and vegetation through evaporation and transpiration. +Soil moisture is essentially flat in every ecoregion — even where +precipitation increased — because the warmer atmosphere is drinking +the extra water back. This is the headline ecological finding for +the region: water inputs may be rising in places, but soil and +vegetation are not seeing more available moisture. **Snow is leaving the region earlier, not falling less.** Annual snowfall across the FWCP Peace is essentially unchanged (-6%); the @@ -925,16 +933,20 @@ because spatial averaging suppresses that variability. For the cold-water resident salmonids the FWCP Peace supports — bull trout, Arctic grayling, mountain whitefish, rainbow trout, kokanee — these signals compound. Stream temperatures are likely -rising in step with warmer ambient air temperatures; the -evapotranspiration imbalance means low-flow conditions in late -summer are not being relieved by the precipitation increase that -did occur; and the cold-water input that high-elevation snowpack -provides to streams during the warmest, most thermally stressful -weeks of summer is dropping in parallel with summer SWE. The -spring freshet — the dominant high-flow event that shapes channel -morphology, mobilizes spawning gravels, and refills off-channel -rearing habitat — is shifting weeks earlier; the neighbouring -Fraser Basin documents the same kind of freshet advance (Kang et -al. 2016) at comparable magnitude. +rising in step with warmer ambient air temperatures, with the +combined effects of warming summer stream temperatures and +altered low flows likely reducing thermally-suitable habitat for +cold-water species [@mantua_etal2010Climatechange; +@eaton_scheller1996Effectsclimate]. The evapotranspiration +imbalance means low-flow conditions in late summer are not being +relieved by the precipitation increase that did occur; and the +cold-water input that high-elevation snowpack provides to streams +during the warmest, most thermally stressful weeks of summer is +dropping in parallel with summer SWE. The spring freshet — the +dominant high-flow event that shapes channel morphology, +mobilizes spawning gravels, and refills off-channel rearing +habitat — is shifting weeks earlier; the neighbouring Fraser +Basin documents the same kind of freshet advance +[@kang_etal2016ImpactsRapidly] at comparable magnitude. ## References